Tuesday, September 27, 2011

This winter is looking very promising again this year, with a recurrent La Niña.  Below an excerpt of the outlook posted by NOAA early this month:

La Niña, which contributed to extreme weather around the globe during the first half of 2011, has re-emerged in the tropical Pacific Ocean and is forecast to gradually strengthen and continue into winter. Today, forecasters with NOAA’s Climate Prediction Center upgraded last month’s La Niña Watch to a La Niña Advisory.
NOAA will issue its official winter outlook in mid-October, but La Niña winters often see drier than normal conditions across the southern tier of the United States and wetter than normal conditions in the Pacific Northwest and Ohio Valley

A link for the complete outlook is included below:

NOAA’s Climate Prediction Center: La Niña is back


Now to the good NEWS. The outlook for Nov/Dec/Jan included below shows above average precipitation early in the winter:

A similar trend is also present for the middle of the winter (Dec/Jan/Feb 2011):

The precipitation mellows down later in the winter (Jan/Feb/March 2012):

In addition the temps for early winter are expected to be average, but by mid winter (Jan/Feb/March 2012) the temps are expected to be below average:

So in our area, La Niña will be driving probability of higher precipitation and lower temperatures. These charts can also be found with probability values at:


As we get closer to winter, there will be additional information related to climatological trends. Particularly on the strength of La Niña event.


Sunday, September 25, 2011

Chago is back from South America!

I just returned a few days ago from my one month migration to South America to teach avi courses and ski tour the wonderful terrain the Central Andes and Northern Patagonia has to offer.

Below some teaser pictures to get you thinking about the Northern Hemisphere winter.

Details on the pictures can be found in the following link:

Enjoy the the blos posting for South America!